CIRAD is responsible for this WP, with Claude Garcia as the leader.

Le CIRAD est responsable de ce WP, avec Claude Garcia en tant que leader.

In this WP, we evaluate the potential of SES to be affected by the plausible futures described in WP 3, and their adaptation capacity. Factors affecting their vulnerability, such as demographic, economic, and political factors, and cultural and institutional characteristics are needed for different types of research and impact modeling. Some of these factors can be modeled and applied to the regional or national scale, but for the most data at finer spatial resolutions are required. By using an integrated model derived from the WP 2 platform  "Mirana II" and a companion modeling (ComMod), we reduce the scale, qualitatively and quantitatively, of the trends described by the WP 3 , incorporating the factors identified in WP 2.

Three specific tasks were defined in the framework of WP 4:  

Task 4.1. Constructing a locally relevant integrated platform.

We adopt the companion modeling (ComMod) to build an integrated conceptual model with stakeholders, through an iterative process. This platform, relying heavily on the model Mirana II of WP 2, was translated into a Role Playing Game (RPG) to enable stakeholders to explore different scenarios through the model and collect their strategies. The platform is adaptive, allowing the research team to address new challenges arising from the results of WP 1, 2 and 3. The model will also be implemented using the Mimosa platform to run more simulations and provide inter-scenarios comparisons.

Task 4.2. Outlining the scenarios. 

Using the simulated trajectories by the WP 3 as input and additional ideas from stakeholder surveys carried out by the WP 2, we can describe scenarios of biodiversity and governance of forest resources. These scenarios are relevant at the local level and extend over several decades, allowing stakeholders to consider the medium and long term when developing their strategies. These scenarios take into account resource requirements, rules of access and the distribution of power between stakeholders.

Task 4.3. Unfolding the scenarios

Through workshops in the study areas, usually involving up to 20 players, the RPG developed in task 4.1 will be used to run simulations based on guidelines developed in task 4.2. During these workshops, the research team will present management and forest resource governance options to players, in which they have to take decisions. The impact on biodiversity modeled over time will then feed discussions on desirable outcomes and plausible futures. Adaptation strategies developed by the actors emerge on the basis of individual and collective decisions made by workshop participants and will be divided by gender, location, and socioeconomic status. These adaptation strategies will be fed back as a feedback loop in the integrated platform WP 3.

For more information, see the newsletter n°4.